Republicans are looking at an electoral disaster next year unless they cheat or worse
By any measure, last weeks election results were a blowout for the Democrats and a repudiation of Donald Trump and his policies. Republicans lost across the board in every important race and suffered embarrassing losses in red states like Mississippi and Georgia. Races that were supposed to be tight, particularly the New Jersey governors race, turned out to be landslides for the Democrats. The results were a useful reminder that Trump won re-election by a very narrow margin: 1.5%. He declared this sliverthe smallest margin since the 19th centuryto be a resounding mandate and has acted accordingly. It turns out that what a lot of voters thought Trump was promisinga better economy and a crackdown on violent immigrants who are here illegallywasnt what he was promising at all. (And if you listened closely, which a lot of voters dont, hes doing exactly what he said he would do.) Related The rights disdain for science is part of their strategy to attack LGBTQ people Three big issues emerged from this years results that should worry Republicans about next years midterms, if not cause them to outright panic. The first is that Democratic voters are incredibly energized. They may well hate their party leadership, which is why the party looks so bad in polls. But when it comes time to vote, they still line up with the party and against Republicans. Polling indicates that Democratic voters are much more enthusiastic about voting in next years midterm elections. By contrast, Republicans arent nearly as keen on going to the polls.That leads to the second issue: Democrats look at elections as a referendum on Trump. A lot of Republican voters turn out for Trumpand only Trump. They say that I wasnt on the ballot was the biggest factor for Republican losses, Trump said last Wednesday. While Trump never takes responsibility for anything, in this case, he is partly correct. Trump is very good at getting people who dont always vote to vote for him. But in typical Trump fashion, all he cares about is himself, not his party, so his power over turnout doesnt translate to anyone else. Dive deeper every day Join our newsletter for thought-provoking commentary that goes beyond the surface of LGBTQ+ issues Subscribe to our Newsletter today The third issue is that key voting blocs that helped Republicans in the past turned against them this time. This was especially true with Latino voters. In 2024, Trump won 46% of the Latino vote. In New Jersey, districts with large Latino populations saw swings of 15% to 40% in favor of Democrats compared to last year. Some of this may be from voters who sat out the 2024 election, but a sizeable portion is from voters who think Trumps immigration policy is an excuse to target Latinos. Trumps success in 2024 was in convincing Latino voters who resent undocumented immigrants that he would get rid of the criminals. Instead, hes embraced a policy of terrorizing Latino neighbors and arresting American citizens based on their skin color. These three issues combine to present a big problem for Republicans. They have limited options ahead. They can (and no doubt will) return to cultural issues to attack Democrats. However, one takeaway from the 2025 election is that anti-trans ads dont work. Theres ample evidence that they arent the silver bullet that Republicans think they are, but the Virginia governors race showed once and for all that spending money on anti-trans ads is the equivalent of setting fire to a pile of cash. They will also try to tie Democrats to New York City Mayor-Elect Zohran Mamdani, who is a Democratic Socialist and thus a bogeyman to the right.So what are Republicans to do? They cant run away from Trump because the partys base will exact vengeance for the betrayal. They control all three arms of government, so they own everything bad that is happening. Politically, there are no good options.But they can cheat. State legislatures in GOP states are rewriting Congressional maps to give the party an unfair advantage. Democratic states are looking to counter that advantage by rewriting their own maps. California voters gave a proposition to allow the state to do so an overwhelming victory last week. But if its a landslide for Democrats, the party will still win control of the House. The more frightening scenario is that the White House will undermine the elections. That work is already well underway. Trump has targeted ActBlue, the Democrats main fundraising arm, for investigation. He has issued an executive order demanding proof of citizenship to vote and an end to mail-in ballots and electronic voting machines. (Trump has no authority to do any of that.)But the worst possibility is armed troops at polling places. With ICE and the National Guard deployed in Democratic-run cities, Trump has his own army that he can use to intimidate voters. But it could get worse. Election experts are worried that Trump will call out the armed forces to patrol polling places. Perhaps next years elections will turn out to be much like any other. But the odds of that are pretty low. As long as Trump is involved, elections will always be fraught with danger. He wont be on the ballot next year, but he wont take kindly to the prospect of Democrats winning one or even both chambers of Congress. That will mean investigations into his actions. And to prevent that, theres every reason to think Trump will stop at nothing.Subscribe to theLGBTQ Nation newsletterand be the first to know about the latest headlines shaping LGBTQ+ communities worldwide.